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WEEKLY HIGHLIGHT

Thai stock market outlook: Sideways down

    Sideways down action ahead: Thai stocks are expected to spend most ofthe week treading sideways with a downward bias as the black swanscontinue to circle around the market. In our view, the risk-off mood remainsfirmly in place amid fears of a global recession exacerbated by another tit-fortadtransatlantic trade battle between the US and the EU, further escalationof protests in Hong Kong and US President Donald Trump impeachmentinquiry. However, we believe the market’s downside would be limited byoptimism over US-China trade talks. Any progress out of a new round of highleveltrade talks between the world’s two largest economies in Washington onOct 10-11 could help trigger a rebound in risk appetite by the end of thetrading week. Trade hopes aside, positive domestic factors that could lendsome support to the market include a potential new batch of tourism andexport stimulus measures from the economic cabinet’s meeting, the thirdquarterbank earnings season, and the widely anticipated trading debut ofAWC, which may help revive market sentiment. For the week, overall tradingrange for the SET index is seen between 1,585 and 1,630 points.



    SET50 futures trading strategy: Look to go short on any rallies towards1,075-1,080 points and set a profit target at 1,050-1,060 points.

    Gold Outlook: Sideways up

    Sideways up action likely: The overall bullish trend in gold prices remainsintact as recession fears continue to bolster safe-haven bids and fund buyinggives prices a further boost. In our view, the flight to safety would continueto dominate the market action after a recent slew of weaker-than-expectedeconomic data out of the US and Europe reinforced signs of a global growthslowdown and pushed market pricing for an Oct rate cut by the US FederalReserve above 90%. Gold could also get a further lift from a steady rise ingold holdings by SPDR Gold Trust , the world’s largest gold-backed, exchangetradedfund. This week, much of the investors’ attention will turn to a newround of high-level trade talks between the US and China on Oct 10-11, a keyfactor that would set the tone for bullion trading ahead. Overall in the bigpicture sense, gold prices are likely to trade with an upside bias but remainrange-bound between US$1,490/oz and US$1,535/oz.

    Gold futures trading strategy: Look to go long on dips and set a profittarget at US$1,530/oz and US$1,545/oz.

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